Futures coffee prices in New York have reached unprecedented levels, with many traders describing the market as being in a state of “panic” due to limited available supply.
As of Monday’s (February 10) trading session, arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange had hit record highs for 13 consecutive sessions. A gain of more than 6% in this session pushed arabica coffee prices above $4.30 per pound, the highest level in history.
One major factor behind this record surge is the emergence of hot, dry weather patterns in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions. Additionally, farmers in key coffee-producing countries are unwilling to release more supply to the market.
“The panic has finally surfaced. Coffee prices will keep rising,” said Bob Fish, founder of Biggby Coffee, a franchise chain with 350 locations across multiple U.S. states, in an interview with Reuters.
“There are only two factors that could put an end to this coffee price rally. One, Brazil and Vietnam would need to have a bumper coffee crop, which isn’t expected to happen until August 2026. Two, coffee consumption in major consumer countries would have to drop significantly due to high prices,” Fish explained.
The coffee businessman warned that U.S. coffee shops should raise their prices; otherwise, they will see their profit margins “evaporate.” So far this year, coffee prices have risen about 35%, following a 70% surge last year.
Market traders are increasingly concerned about low coffee stockpiles in Brazil, which accounts for nearly half of the world’s arabica coffee production. Currently, Brazilian coffee farmers have already sold around 85% of their latest crop and are in no hurry to sell more.
“The remaining coffee stocks are in the hands of financially strong producers,” a coffee broker noted, emphasizing that these farmers feel no pressure to sell.
However, traders argue that, to some extent, the arabica price rally has evolved into a self-reinforcing spiral, no longer entirely driven by fundamental supply and demand factors.
“There are those who believe Brazil’s next coffee harvest could turn out better than expected—not exceeding last year’s production, but enough to slightly improve the outlook,” a report from trading firm Icona Cafe stated.
Hedgepoint, a brokerage firm, even forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production will surpass last year’s levels, predicting an output of 64.1 million bags for the 2025/2026 crop year, compared to an estimated 63.4 million bags from the previous season.
Robusta coffee—a cheaper variety than arabica, widely grown in Vietnam and primarily used for instant coffee—has also been trading near record levels. On February 10, robusta futures in New York rose 2.4% to $5,697 per ton. The price for this variety reached an all-time high of $5,840 per ton on January 31.
According to forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam could push global coffee stockpiles to their lowest levels in 25 years. In fact, adverse weather impacting coffee crops has been driving price increases since 2011.
“Coffee supply has improved, but not enough to meet demand. People are beginning to feel that the impact of weather on coffee production will be worse than initially expected,” Ryan Delany, head analyst at Coffee Trading Academy, told CNN.
